Why didn't we learn from the dodo?

It’s most probable that today The Limits to Growth isn’t seen as seminal, at least in the everyday sense. The prospect that there may be limits to growth, doesn’t seem to be generally known or discussed. Most people just worry about everyday stuff, although the climate is of concern to most, we’re told green growth will offset this. Everything will be O.K, if we can attain growth, or so we are told but what does growth mean specifically from an exponential point of view, what does it entail, what are the consequences of growth or non-growth? Whilst there are debates regarding degrowth and green growth, where does this constant quest for growth end, can it end? If Meadows and her colleagues were right, an end or rather a collapse could be in sight, and it could be somewhere around 2100 (1).

Central to this quest for economic growth lies the impending consequences of collapse, systems collapse, yet a strange phenomenon seems to have happened. In 1972, the release of The Limits to Growth was met with furore. Environmentalists applauded it for highlighting what was the pressing problems associated with over-consumption (2). It became an international reference point which highlighted the “ecological consequences of the dynamics of growth” which up to that point had been seen as positive (3). Despite generating extensive public debate, The Limits to Growth also raised controversy, particularly amongst economists who held a view that was deemed extremely hostile. It was “a brazen, impudent piece of nonsense that nobody could possibly take seriously” (4). The British Economist and US Newsweek were also scathing in their critiques. As one Newsweek editorial stated, the study is “a piece of irresponsible nonsense” (2).

Today, as Espinosa states, the relation between the pressure and impact on the natural environment and economic growth is no longer contested, a consensus has been reached (3) but little seems to be said or known about the prospect of systems collapse. Like the climate crisis, it is shrouded in uncertainty. Society has seen systems collapse. We’re still living through the consequences of the most recent banking crisis, and the political choices of austerity and cuts which followed. Today, systems in the UK, like services are crumbling around us and they seem to be collapsing very slowly but very surely (5, 6, 7, 8). Why we are in such a situation seems to be blamed on outside events, circumstantial crisis beyond a nation’s political control, the banks, Covid, the climate, wars, inflation, migration. The world seems to be in a perpetual cycle of fear from something. Might much of this come from the drive to economic growth?

In 2022, the fourth publication revisiting The Limits to Growth was published. It was also the 50^th anniversary and with five decades of data to go back on, it seems Meadows and her colleagues were pretty accurate with their projections (9). Yet despite the clock ticking, the furore of five decades past were A Computer Looks Ahead and Shudders, Study Sees Disaster by Year 2100, and Scientists Warn of Global Catastrophe (10), we amble on almost dismissive, ignorant, and unknowing and even though global catastrophe is actually evident, (11), the furore needed is often framed as a disruptive, annoying nuisance. (12, 13). Those waving banners whilst wandering down the road acknowledging ‘JUST STOP OIL’ are deemed an irritating orange stain on the system of society.

The Limits to Growth looked to five global trends in 1972, the acceleration of industrialisation, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, the consumption and depletion of non-renewable resources and the deterioration of the environment and the five factors following a pattern of exponential growth which drove them, population, agricultural production, the extraction and consumption of natural resources, industrial production, and pollution. Interconnected, interdependent and interrelated and when boiled down, it seems an over-riding aspect driving it all, the quest for economic growth and our incessant drive to produce and consume. Whilst Meadows and her colleagues never advocated for a zero-growth society, simply a sustainable one, (2), it seems these trends remain as prevalent today as they were five decades ago, more so if anything. Indicating that despite any projections presented by Meadows and her colleagues, we remain on a pathway that can be conceived as persistent, stable, and steadfast even under the guise of getting to a green, low-carbon economy.

I feel quite naive that it took me five decades to find The Limits to Growth despite the urgency placed by Meadows and her colleagues, but now I know it, I feel I need to re-emphasise the significance. I need to look at the story and say it to society. In scientific circles this is unnecessary, but I need to understand and underline, it is important. It is significant but I’m left wondering why has the message of systems collapse seemingly been subdued, dismissed, or relatively forgotten? The concept of systems collapse is not talked about in the mainstream. Why not?

Five decades ago, Meadows and her colleagues acknowledged that in a world of supposed plenty, there is poverty, there is the insecurity around work, urban spread can be uncontrolled, institutions, particularly political, face a loss of faith, traditional values have been rejected, the youth are alienated and amongst it all there are monetary and economic disruptions. From a holistic point of view, it seems the system was then failing but these problems are as evident today as the trends put forward above.

Why do we remain on this pathway when alternatives exist? Is the quest for economic growth just to ingrained? Can economic growth ever be sustainable and not follow a pathway that is exponential? Who is in control, those making the most money? Is society not ready for any alternative or do we need growth to get there? Given the scale and the web of the world, the complexities are mind-boggling, but change is possible.

Whilst there is obvious uncertainty as to what the future will look like, hindsight, present trends, scientific observations, global incidents, and contemporary crises indicate we could be heading towards systems collapse. We can or certainly could have worked towards controlling what might happen. We’ve had five decades to avoid what Meadows and her colleagues set out as overshoot and collapse or we can react to things after the event which is what we seem to do. As the former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson iterated in the Covid-19 inquiry, given the evidence before us, we, I should have twigged sooner. When the climate has warmed to such a degree that what was prediction, prevails, as Stern indicates (read blog post, What a wicked problem to persist). When species and biodiversity has been lost forever, rather than gamble on uncertainty, we could have taken a different pathway. We are always hearing about learning from history, so why don’t we learn from the dodo?

There are tentative steps in alternative directions, Net Zero, regenerative farming, circular economies but we are still consuming excessive amounts of fossil fuels. We are still inflicting the land with pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers and production and consumption are consuming resources and polluting the planet. People remain poor.

In 2002, the thirty-year update to the study of The Limits to Growth was released. Each of the authors worldview was presented, reflecting on where we were heading. From unceasing optimism, were long-term global policies to avert overshoot were adopted, to the cynicism of ignoring the indicators until it is too late, and the short-term goals of financial security, employment and increased consumption were steadfastly pursued. To something akin to the middle line of relative sustainability whereby actions will be taken to avoid the worst possibilities for global collapse, because severe global crises have forced action. The earlier we were able to act the better the outcome. Delay, it stated will result in the destruction of many ecological treasures, many economic and political options will be lost, and there will be increased militarization of society and widespread conflict as inequalities not just persist but increase (14). Given we are now two decades on from this, and five from the original text, I can’t help but look around the world and as I wonder on the direction we are heading I cannot help but feel a sense of loss and a foreboding for the future.

References

1. Meadows et al. (1972) The Limits to Growth. Available at: The Limits to Growth. A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind. (secureserver.net)
2. Eastin, J, Grundmann R, Prakash, A. (2010) ‘The two limits debates: ‘‘Limits to Growth’’ and climate change’ Elsevier, Futures 43 (2011) 16–26. Available at: The two limits debates Limits to Growth and climate change Prakash.pdf
3. Espinosa, A, G. (2022) ‘The Limits to Growth, Ecosocialism or Barbarism’, Monthly Review, vol, 74, No. 3 July-August 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.14452/MR-074-03-2022-07_2
4. Common, M. (1993) ‘Reviewed Work(s): Beyond the Limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers’, The Economic Journal, July., 1993, Vol. 103, No. 419 (July., 1993), pp. 1084-1086. Available at: Common-EconomicJournal-1993.pdf
5. McGee, L. (2022) ‘Britain is plunging deeper into crisis by the day, but its government is missing in action’, CNN, 20 August. Available at: Britain is plunging deeper into crisis by the day, but its government is missing in action | CNN
6. Evans, M. (2023) ‘Is Britain broken? Strikes, schools at risk of collapse expose broader challenges facing U.K.’ CBC News, 22 September. Available at: Is Britain broken? Strikes, schools at risk of collapse expose broader challenges facing U.K. | CBC News
7. Adu, A. (2022) ‘Jeremy Hunt ‘accepts picture’ of NHS on brink of collapse, but efficiencies must be found’. The Guardian, 13 November. Available at: Jeremy Hunt ‘accepts picture’ of NHS on brink of collapse, but efficiencies must be found | NHS | The Guardian
8. Brown, F and Scott, J. (2023) ‘First list of schools in England affected by unsafe concrete published by government’, Sky News, 6 September. Available at: Full list of schools in England affected by unsafe concrete published by government | Politics News | Sky News
9. Döring, T and Aigner-Walder, B. (2022) ‘The Limits to Growth – 50 Years Ago and Today’. Intereconomics, 2022, 57(3), 187-191. Available at: Doring iThe_Limits_to_Growthi_—_.pdf
10. Meadows D, Meadows, D and Randers, J. (2023) Beyond The Limits To Growth’. The Donella Meadows Project, Academy for Systems Change Available at: Beyond The Limits To Growth - The Donella Meadows Project
11. Rosenberg, L. (2023) The Pacific Island Country of Tuvalu is Sinking Due To Climate Change. Available at: The Island of Tuvalu Is Sinking Due to the Effects of Climate Change (greenmatters.com)
12. Noyce, E. (2023) ‘Man interrupts Just Stop Oil protest, throwing activist to the ground’, The Independent, 19 May. Available at: Man interrupts Just Stop Oil protest, throwing activist to the ground | The Independent
13. Hanlon, T. (2023) ‘Woman blasts Just Stop Oil ‘you make me sick’ as she tells them to get out of the way’, Mirror, 14 July. Available at: Woman blasts Just Stop Oil 'you make me sick' as she tells them 'get out of way' - Mirror Online
14. Meadows D, Meadows, D and Randers, J. (2004) Limits to Growth The 30-Year Update. London: Chelsea Green Publishing
15. Coker, J. (2023) 'Boris Johnson'. Instagram Available at: @johncokerart